Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 12.593695 15.397469 18.519846 22.232261 26.502446 31.236895 36.858663
2025-12-21 8.025443 11.432499 15.667749 21.221383 28.206684 36.593786 47.308103
2025-12-28 6.076634 9.769811 14.764894 21.800310 31.219047 43.148772 59.127859
2026-01-04 4.705781 8.445498 13.895637 22.053284 33.549035 48.744119 69.861697
2026-01-11 3.773010 7.497697 13.304706 22.470246 35.960170 54.432011 80.883541
2026-01-18 3.121219 6.822055 12.958324 23.109420 38.621237 60.505751 92.634754
2026-01-25 2.430031 5.897052 12.038131 22.706417 39.642597 64.259657 101.296589
2026-02-01 1.993806 5.328191 11.595823 22.959458 41.597503 69.375193 112.024440
2026-02-08 1.559420 4.639250 10.813887 22.525508 42.392599 72.765681 120.360500
2026-02-15 1.192984 3.983074 9.967098 21.849620 42.693585 75.364245 127.578651
2026-02-22 1.020093 3.733457 9.865562 22.471575 45.141384 81.327751 139.992533
2026-03-01 0.804058 3.297742 9.301237 22.157709 45.953720 84.738633 148.641944
2026-03-08 0.651190 2.998612 9.014155 22.413085 47.897374 90.249996 161.082309
2026-03-15 0.457760 2.481591 8.127780 21.374255 47.471363 91.931725 167.704592
2026-03-22 0.379474 2.314206 8.040506 21.954969 50.015660 98.603575 182.429142
2026-03-29 0.303305 2.111169 7.817252 22.209244 51.949871 104.318094 195.805451
2026-04-05 0.246685 1.953996 7.680202 22.628498 54.211226 110.668511 210.409312
2026-04-12 0.205839 1.842606 7.646258 23.271176 56.936699 117.917464 226.703419
2026-04-19 0.150264 1.606937 7.189719 22.865966 57.543162 121.469844 236.986518
2026-04-26 0.118443 1.475458 7.019396 23.120394 59.484395 127.446236 251.483844
2026-05-03 0.083963 1.282573 6.594923 22.684063 59.956837 130.784556 261.611847
2026-05-10 0.055989 1.089232 6.105144 22.004447 59.850118 133.038419 269.933167
2026-05-17 0.045636 1.035113 6.109240 22.629834 62.577550 140.612723 287.622510